Pass the SoLT

This week it was reported by Amazon that for the first time Kindle books outsold hardcover and paperbacks for the first time. Amazon states that in less than four years since the first release of the Kindle in 1997 their customers are now purchasing more Kindle books than all print books - hardcover and paperback - combined. They go on to report that since April 1, for every 100 print books Amazon.com has sold, it has sold 105 Kindle books. Amazon also claims to have sold more than three times as many Kindle books so far in 2011 as it did during the same period in 2010.

A brief follow up story in Singularity Hub opens with the line 'the world is going digital' as people are getting over the feel of the traditional printed book in their hands. The article also points out that Kindle sales numbers include only paid books and do not include the many out-of-copyright books that Kindle offers for free. This point is used as further evidence that 'pixel is winning over paper', and not just for books.

Although I think this claim is a little premature, on a personal note when traveling I no longer carry with me a thick paperback to read on the plane and in my hotel room. And it's great not having to carry a weighty book with me in my hand luggage. Drawing on the example cited in the article by Murray, in my own university education I do remember the 'old days' when you used to go to the library and search the stacks for journal articles. I would then spend hours standing by the photocopier late at night when there wasn't a long line copying seminal articles and research papers. I hate to think how much of my time at university was spent exposing myself to the toxic spell of the copier and the light given off from the side.

Now almost everything is online. These days the main reason I visit the library is to meet with the University's Head Librarian. And I probably read more books and academic papers now than when I was a student. Therefore I concur with Murray that it is 'a pain in the butt if you have to leave your office and trudge down to the library' to find something that's not online.

So what does all this mean for the future of higher education and the nature of the student experience? Well I won't attempt to make any bold predictions as I don't see the book disappearing just yet and history tells us that universities are notoriously slow to change. However, e-books are now part of the new normal of learning (formal, informal and non formal) and we only have to reflect back on how the political economy of the music industry has radically changed over the last decade. In our own household we recently disposed of our 1990s stereo player and we no longer have a CD player. All our CDs are stored away as our music is digital.

My hunch is that the real driver or tipping point for pixel over paper in higher education will be the textbook industry. In part this will be driven by the fragile state of the economy and the growth of new business models around open access and the ability to hire e-textbooks over a short period at a much lower cost. But we should not underestimate the influence of student demand as peope seek greater accessibility, portability and usability, especially with added features such as embedded video, interactive activities and digital annotation tools becoming more standard. In making this comment, I'm mindful that the reason we no longer have an old stereo or CD players in our household is because they no longer serve our needs of having access to music anywhere, anytime.

The Los Angeles Times has an interesting series of articles on the future of reading which more specifically explore the way electronic devices are transforming the book.

Since Xmas several of my friends and work colleagues have purchased iPads or Kindles (or both) and 2011 appears to be shaping up a crucial year in the history of the traditional book. According to the most recent story in the LA Times, Amazon has sold more than 7 million Kindle devices, which equates roughly to 1 in 10 people who shop on Amazon's online store.

I was recently pleased to hear that Amazon is now allowing people to share their electronic purchases with other readers for a limited period (2 weeks). This appears to be major issue in the future growth of electronic books as usually in our household they are shared between family members before eventually finding their way to a local charity auction. So far the only problem is that none of the books I've purchased from Amazon allow me to share them as this service depends on the publisher.

At Massey University we recently approved a pilot using iPads in the College of Creative Arts and I will be keeping a keen eye on this development. Another development that I will be watching from afar is the Open University's annotation project which appears to be similar to the pilot initiative we undertook last year at Massey using A.nnotate. In our case there was insufficient evidence from the student evaluation of this project to expand the current pilot. Most students involved in the pilot did not use the online annotation service, although paradoxically, when asked, they still wanted the tool to be available to them. By the end of the year I expect we will see a lot more clarity around the future of such cloud applications and whether they have a future in higher education.

On the eve of Apple's announcement of their latest hardware device (some type of portable tablet), it's interesting to speculate how the ebook reader market will evolve over the next 12 months. Who will be the winners and losers? A recent article published on the BBC News website bets against ebook readers and reports an initiative to turn any device into an e-reader. The intention is to invent something that will run on all platforms. As Ray Kurzweil, famed for inventions like speech-recognition software, states:

"People don't want an extra piece of hardware. They want to take one device and do everything with it and they want colour screens."

Notably, the article reports Forrester Research estimate that Amazon's Kindle currently accounts for 60% of all e-readers sold in the US last year. Sony, which offers a competing Reader device, accounts for 35%. Some analysts claim that as many as 10 million e-reader devices will be sold in the United States in the coming year. What share of the market can Apple secure over the next 12 months?

Future developments in this area have particular significance for Massey University as we have a strong commitment to digitize our current print-based learning resources. In the next few weeks, Massey is about to start a formal pilot using An.notate as both a stand alone and integrated tool to work with Moodle. This tool will allow students to annotate online readings, and search and place markers for points of particular interest. Arguably, the tool will be even more powerful when students can access and make use of its functionality from portable devices. A formal evaluation of the Massey pilot will be undertaken over the next few months and I'll post an update of our findings in due course.